Kezdjük azzal, hogy a permabear bankelemző Dick Bove-t kirúgták, ergo kezdhet majd lassan-de-biztosan begyorsulni valamikor:) az emelkedés sebessége..
Másrészt idéznék:
Bank earnings could hit a record $38 billion in the fourth quarter, while
the industry is poised to have a solid 2013, well-known analyst Dick Bove told
CNBC's Closing Bell
on Monday.
Bove noted that industry earnings have risen year-over-year for the past 14
quarters, with banks collectively earning $37 billion in the third quarter.
"There's a good chance the fourth quarter of this year will be the
highest earnings period ever in the history of the American banking
industry," he said.
"And when you take a look at the $38 billion
relative to the $25 billion earned in the fourth quarter last year, it'll be a
50 percent increase."
He's predicting that investors will flock back to the stocks next year as
banks start returning more capital to shareholders.
"
Because the industry
is massively overcapitalized and has an enormous amount of excess liquidity,
the dividends will go up the stock buyback programs will increase," he
said.
He expects Bank of America, for instance, to pay out 30 percent of earnings
in dividends over the next couple of years. Other banks will also get to a
payout ratio of around 30 or 35 percent, he said.
So far, the market hasn't recognized the "s u p e r b" outlook for the
industry, Bove said."
Szóval akkor annyi lenne lassan, hogy ha már mindenki bevásárolt a banki alkalmazottak közül, akkor indulhat a rally az osztalék emelkedése miatt és majd a bankok visszacsöpögtetik az ingyen QE123 pénzt a piacon keresztül a gazdaságba? Tök mindegy, hogy igen vagy nem, mindenesetre a banki részvények nem egy rossz trade továbbra sem. Megemeljük a stop-ot? Meg kell nézni a chart-ot, de a viselkedés több, mint szuper. (update: igen, megemeltük:))
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